Assessment of Climate Change and Extremes
With
greater certainty of a climate change occurring, there is a need for developing
information on its impacts on Agricultural production, particularly on farms
with mixed enterprises. This paper outlines a farm simulation model developed
to assess the impact of climate change and extremes on a mixed farm in the
Canadian Prairies. The model is named MF-CCE -- Mixed Farm Model for the
Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Extremes. The model integrates
the production models such as agronomic crop simulation model, cattle herd
simulation model, pasture yield model for the simulation of crops and hay,
livestock production, and pasture production, respectively. The model also
includes liner-programming models for the economic decisions such as crop
selections for feed rations and the crop mix for market sales. The outputs from
these biological and economic models are inputs needed for simulation of farm
level economic indicators. This model is applied to a mixed farm operation in
Pincher Creek region of Alberta.
The
impacts of climate change and extremes are simulated through yield effects
measured by biological models under an assumed climate change scenario. The
simulation results indicate that the modelled farm is viable business for the
planning horizon of 30 years under both the baseline and future scenario. In
terms of future climate change impacts, both the crop and beef cattle
activities will benefit in the future taking account of both the average
climate change as well as weather extreme events. However, the farm will be
impacted severely during the period of extremes weather as indicated by
negative returns at crop production and farm levels.
The
study contributes to the knowledge of climate change impact assessment at the
farm level by offering a simple and flexible yet comprehensive assessment
framework, MF-CCE model. The model consists of a number of integrated
sub-models to assess whole farm economic returns. However, the farm will be
impacted severely during the period of extremes weather as indicated by
negative returns at crop production and farm levels.
The above Article originally was published at
SciFed Journal of Environmental Studies in 2017, to have a glance please visit:
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